With the Oscars on their way this weekend, Press Association film critic Damon Smith looks at who will win the big prizes – and more importantly, who should win:

Best picture

Emma Stone attends the movie junket for Birdman (or The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance) in New York City, NY, USA, October 13, 2014
Emma Stone at the movie junket for Birdman (or The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance) in New York City (HT/ABACA/PA)

Will win: Birdman (or The Unexpected Virtue Of Ignorance)
Should win: The Grand Budapest Hotel

Critics’ darling Boyhood has fallen by the wayside in recent weeks, allowing the giddy show business satire Birdman to gallop to the front of the pack. It’s an obvious choice – a back-slapping celebration of Hollywood, celebrity and the creative process – but if Oscar voters chose unparalleled quality over self-congratulation, they would check into Wes Anderson’s visually stunning and hilarious murder mystery The Grand Budapest Hotel instead.

Best director

Director Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu toasts with a glass of champagne during an interview about best director and best picture nominations for his film "Babel," in Beverly Hills, Calif., Tuesday morning,
Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu Director of Birdman is up for the Best Director award at the Oscars (Chris Pizzello/AP)

Will win: Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu (Birdman (or The Unexpected Virtue Of Ignorance))
Should win: Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu (Birdman (or The Unexpected Virtue Of Ignorance))

Richard Linklater’s 12-year devotion to Boyhood is certainly admirable and Wes Anderson certainly worked his magic behind the camera in The Grand Budapest Hotel but Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu should become the second Mexican director in succession to be ushered to the podium for his bravura direction of Birdman. Stitched together to resemble a single fluid take, the film is a technical master class with Alejandro at the helm.

Best actor in a leading role

Eddie Redmayne attending the after show party for the EE British Academy Film Awards at the Grosvenor House Hotel in central London
Eddie Redmayne partied at the Baftas after-show party (Matt Crossick/ Empics Entertainment)

Will win: Eddie Redmayne (The Theory Of Everything)
Should win: Eddie Redmayne (The Theory Of Everything)

While Michael Keaton would be the sentimental choice as the comeback kid for his eye-catching work in Birdman (or The Unexpected Virtue Of Ignorance), Eddie’s jaw-dropping, transformative performance as Stephen Hawking is in a league of its own, recalling Daniel Day-Lewis’s deserved first Oscar win for My Left Foot. He was 32. Eddie has recently turned 33. Destiny is surely calling.

Best actress in a leading role

Julianne Moore with the Award for Leading Actress for Still Alice, at the EE British Academy Film Awards at the Royal Opera House, Bow Street in London.
Julianne Moore with her Bafta for Leading Actress for Still Alice (Dominic Lipinski/PA)

Will win: Julianne Moore (Still Alice)
Should win: Marion Cotillard (Two Days, One Night)

With her fifth nomination, Julianne will finally secure a shiny golden statuette for her mantelpiece. She is long overdue and really should have won in 2003 for Far From Heaven when Nicole Kidman stole her thunder. On merit, Marion’s heart-breaking turn as a desperate woman threatened with redundancy, who must persuade work colleagues to reject a monetary bonus and keep her on instead, deserves the glittering prize.

Best actor in a supporting role

 Best Supporting Actor Winner JK Simmons (Whiplash) in the Press Room at the EE British Academy Film Awards 2015 held at the Royal Opera House in Covent Garden, London UK
Best Supporting Actor Winner JK Simmons (Whiplash) at the Baftas (Doug Peters/ Empics Entertainment )

Will win: JK Simmons (Whiplash)
Should win: JK Simmons (Whiplash)

Of all the marvels in Damien Chazelle’s exhilarating second directorial feature Whiplash, JK Simmons’s electrifying portrayal of a monstrous teacher Terence Fletcher, who terrorises a 19-year-old drumming student, sears deepest into the memory. The cold, calculated manner in which Simmons verbally and physically abuses sweat-drenched co-stars, who don’t meet his character’s warped idea of perfection, is delicious.

Best actress in a supporting role

Patricia Arquette with the award for Best Supporting Actress for Boyhood, at the EE British Academy Film Awards at the Royal Opera House, Bow Street in London.
Patricia Arquette with the award for Best Supporting Actress for Boyhood, at the EE British Academy Film Awards at the Royal Opera House, Bow Street in London (Dominic Lipinski/PA)

Will win: Patricia Arquette (Boyhood)
Should win: Patricia Arquette (Boyhood)

Strictly speaking, Patricia is the lead actress in Richard Linklater’s long-gestated passion project, which should have been entitled Motherhood considering that her plucky matriarch is the emotional fulcrum for the 12 years of on-screen tears and tantrums. She has collected virtually every critics’ award and plaudit for the role en route to the Oscars and will be unstoppable on the night.